2010 San Diego Padres
At least once a year, I seem to find a way to talk myself into betting an irresponsibly large amount of money on something that I think has really good value. Past examples of this include the 2007 New York Giants (nice catch, Tyree), the 2008 Oakland Athletics (oops), the 2008 Presidential election (mega oops), and Joe Cada at last year’s final table (ding ding ding ding ding). My latest betting crush is on the 2010 San Diego Padres. I can’t believe how good the value is on this team right now.
It’d be tough to make an argument against the Padres being the best team in the NL right now. Yet for some reason, they’re 7:1 to win the pennant on Bodog. If we assume they have about an 75% chance of reaching the playoffs, which I think fair if you put faith into the Baseball Prospectus season simulation, then they should be more like 5:1 to win the pennant and that’s just if you think they’re a flip in any postseason series once they get there. But for a couple reasons, I think they should be given credit to do better-than-a-flip in the playoffs (even though the MLB postseason is unfortunately just a crapshoot).
1. They’ll have home field advantage (probably). At the moment, the Padres have the best record in the NL. If they can finish the season strong, it stands to reason that the road to the World Series goes through San Diego. This certainly gives them a slight edge and would even make 5:1 on them to win the pennant start to seem like a decent bet.
2. They’ve got the secret sauce. Baseball statistician turned political analyst extrodinaire Nate Silver developed a formula for determining a team’s postseason success. He dubbed this forumla the “secret sauce” for doing well in the postseason which includes a combination of three things: a.) a team’s pitching staff’s strikeout rate, b.) it’s quality of defense, and c.) strength of their closer. In these ways, the Padres are nearly second to none (in fact, they were second to none a few days ago, but I see that the Giants have since taken a slight lead on the current secret sauce standings). Basically, in the metrics most predictive of postseason success, the Padres rule.
Since the strongest teams in the league (Rangers, Rays, and Yankees) are all in the AL, the path to the NL pennant is fairly soft for San Diego. Despite this, betting markets seem to be giving them very little credit. In fact, Bodog lists the Giants, who currently trail the Padres in the NL West, as bigger favorites to win the pennant. Also being given shorter odds to win the pennant on Bodog are the St. Louis Cardinals who Baseball Prospectus predicts as being barely more than a coinflip to even reach the playoffs. Who else does Bodog think has a better chance of winning the pennant? The Atlanta Braves, which might not be too unfair, but at nearly doubly more likely than San Diego, 3.75:1, is a joke. Even if you knew they’d be in the playoffs, which is far from certain at this point, you would be hard pressed to expect them to be better than 3.75:1 to win.
In short, betting markets have no love for the team that should probably be considered favorites to win the NL right now, so I’ll give them some love and hope they return the favor this fall.
Gooo San Diego!
Coney Island Photo Dump
I was at Coney Island a couple of weeks ago but just never got around to putting up some pictures. We did pretty much all of the stereotypical Coney Island stuff: ate at the original Nathan’s, rode The Cyclone, saw a freakshow, and caught a Class A baseball game. It was the Brooklyn Cyclones vs. the Lowell Spinners (who were 7-26 coming into the game). Brooklyn won in the 9th with a walkoff single. It was pretty fun overall, but the whole time I couldn’t stop thinking about how much better it would have been if you could bet on Class A baseball games. I did make a bet with my girlfriend regarding whether or not there would be a home-run hit in the game. She took “no” and owed me a beer in the 2nd inning because I run hot when it doesn’t matter. Ship it!
The Cyclone was actually pretty good. For a roller coaster that’s been around since before the Great Depression, I wasn’t expecting much, but it gave a thrill for sure. I was just more concerned that it was going to give me back problems (as rickety old wooden roller coasters can tend to do), but that was no issue. I was going to take a POV video on my phone while riding it (because I’m a dork like that), but just before doing so, I figured I would check to see if there was already something like that on YouTube. Turns out there is, so I put my phone back in my pocket. This is what the ride is like:
Oh, and as cliche as it is, Nathan’s hot dogs really are way better at the original location.
Lastly, here’s a November Nine preview I did for PokerTips.org.
Movie Grades 2Q 2010
I guess this is a few weeks late, but I’ve been pretty busy this month with the WSOP and driving 3,200 miles in a week (first back to Houston from Vegas and then back to Houston again from New York after helping my girlfriend move). I actually really enjoy driving a lot probably for the same reason I enjoy flying (provided there’s not wifi on the plane): it’s a nice chance to disconnect from technology and reconnect to yourself and your thoughts. I know this is achievable in everyday life, but I find it pretty hard to avoid the impulse to get out my phone and visit some random website or whatever (though I am working on trying to get better at this; it turns out the iPhone’s battery life isn’t as bad as I thought provided you’re not playing with it constantly).
Anyway, here are the movies I saw in the second quarter of this year along with a letter grade on how much I liked them and a brief comment about them. I saw Inception a couple days ago (that will appear in the 3Q grades) and I was really disappointed. Based on all the things I had heard people saying, I went into it expecting it to have a good shot at surpassing Shutter Island for my favorite movie of 2010, but it didn’t even come close. The storyline concept was cool, but I thought the movie did an inadequate job of making you empathize with the hero. The whole movie hinged on DiCaprio’s struggle to get back to his children which was a struggle that I thought the movie did a terrible job of getting the audience to support. I could have cared less whether or not he succeeded, so the movie was very unsatisfying imo.
A-
Usual Suspects – I saw this when I was a teenager but don’t think I was really able to follow it then.
Kick Ass – I can’t think of another movie where gratuitous violence was so hilarious.
El Secreto en sus Ojos – Coulda done without the romantic storyline, but was otherwise an awesome murder mystery thriller.
B+
Law Abiding Citizen – A poor man’s Se7en.
Nordwand – German mountain climbing movie. Started off slow, but got really good by the end.
Syriana – Never really got as suspenseful as I was hoping it would, but a good movie nonetheless.
The Damned United – Brian Clough reminds me a little of Phil Hellmuth.
B
Edge of Darkness – Got a little over the top with the villain figure.
B-
MacGruber – I laughed my ass off a few times, but overall should have probably just waited for it to come out on video.
Rendition – I normally like the war on terror genre, but this kinda sucked.
Confessions of a Dangerous Mind – This had stretches of being pretty good and stretches where I nearly shut it off.
C+
Dog Pound – Succeeded in being violent and captivating but the storyline was simply too far-fetched.
Robin Hood – This could have been a good movie, but they let it get too cheesy in some parts.
C
Men Who Stare at Goats – Stupid.
Tenderness – Mediocre psycho-thriller.
D
Streets of Blood – This was just a trainwreck.
Sayonara Rio?
This entry originally appeared on my WSOP blog at PokerTips.org.
I went to the Rio yesterday to settle up a debt with a friend. While I was there, it occurred to me that it’s entirely possible that I’ll never step foot in the Brazilian-themed casino again. This isn’t because I don’t think I’ll be back for the WSOP. It’s that I don’t think the WSOP will be back to Rio.
There seems to be a pretty strong rumor that Harrah’s has all but sold the Rio and will move the WSOP to Caesars or possibly even Planet Hollywood next year. If that happens, there’s really no reason to go Rio again. The fact that the Rio sucks wouldn’t be the sole reason I’d never go back, a casino sucking has never stopped me from stepping foot inside before, but it’s off-strip location pretty much means you’d only ever go there if your objective was to do just that. Without the WSOP, there’s really no reason to go to Rio.
I allowed myself a moment of nostalgia as I departed the Rio property yesterday. When I came to Vegas for the first time in 2005, just a few short days after I had turned 21, Rio was the first casino I set foot in. I got off my plane, got in a taxi, and told him, “take me to the Rio.” A few minutes later, I was immersed in the WSOP atmosphere and have been hooked ever since. I still remember what it was like seeing Marcel Luske walking through the casino. “Holy crap! That’s Marcel Luske!” I remember thinking. I’ve long since shed any sense of awe I have towards TV poker pros, so it’s kind of funny to me reflecting back on how excited I was to see Marcel f***ing Luske.
If this is indeed the Rio’s curtain call, I’ll be quite happy. I’ve never had much of a problem with the WSOP at Rio. The Rio facilities are massive and house the action comfortably. But Rio is starting to feel kind of stale as the host of the WSOP. This is the Rio’s sixth straight year of hosting the WSOP. The property would probably play host for the WSOP indefinitely as long as Harrah’s is its owner. By holding the WSOP at the island that is Rio, Harrah’s can optimize the room occupancy across all of their Vegas properties. Since it is located off the Strip, getting people to stay at the Rio is pretty tough, but if you put something like the WSOP there, poker players will stay at Rio and away from their other properties (like Caesars and Paris) that don’t need any help filling rooms.
If Harrah’s sells Rio, they’ll have to bite the bullet and move the WSOP to one of their Strip properties. The Rio’s new owner will be left with the interesting task of figuring out how on earth to get people to visit an off-Strip casino that, as shaniac so appropriately put it, is like a cruise ship from hell. One thing is for sure: without the WSOP, myself and probably countless other poker players will find no reason to visit Rio again.
