Straight from the Horse’s Mouth
I was at Joe Cada’s starting table in the Sunday Warm-Up today. Those with their finger on the pulse of the poker world know that the 21 year old Cada is among the November Nine. I think there’s a lot of value on betting on Cada to win the Main Event. He only has about 7% of the chips in play, but is quite possibly better than everyone at the final table (except probably Ivey and perhaps Schulman) as a result of all of his experience from playing online poker. Despite this, most sports books don’t seem to be giving Cada any credit for being an above average player at this final table.
Pinnacle has him at +1537 (others must like this prop too, because that opened over +1600) to win the tournament, which is basically valuing him at exactly how much his chips are worth as a percentage of those in play.
I love this bet.
Anyway, with Cada at my table, I figured I might as well make sure he agrees this is a good bet:
I’m hoping to be able to get something fairly hefty on this line, like at least $1k, and then tune-out the poker world for a couple of days so I can watch the ESPN November Nine broadcast unaware of the outcome. I did that last year and it definitely made things more entertaining. I was positive Demidov was going to win.
| November Nine Odds | ||
| Player | Chip Count | Pinnacle Odds |
| Darvin Moon | $58,930,000 | +359 |
| Eric Buchman | $34,800,000 | +463 |
| Steven Begleiter | $29,885,000 | +574 |
| Jeff Shulman | $19,580,000 | +612 |
| Joseph Cada | $13,215,000 | +1537 |
| Kevin Schaffel | $12,390,000 | +1558 |
| Phil Ivey | $9,765,000 | +603 |
| Antoine Saout | $9,500,000 | +1717 |
| James Akenhead | $6,800,000 | +1667 |
If you wanted to bet against Cada winning on Pinnacle, that line is -2637 right now. I can offer that to anyone much cheaper at -1500. Get in touch if interested.
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I had a pretty disappointing day today playing online. Washed out of every $200+ buy-in despite building a lot of nice stacks only to watch them go “poof” near the bubble. The only deep run I made was in the PokerStars $10 crapshoot that had over 28,000 players. I lost a race for 2.5x the average chip stack with 60 players left. Something about only getting $240 for finishing 60th out of 28,000 players is very demoralizing.
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I’m going up to Indiana next weekend to hang out with some friends and participate in our fantasy football draft. This is the third year in a row I’ve flown up for the draft. Well, to be fair, the draft is really just an excuse to hang out with old friends. I used to get really excited for fantasy football and even do a fair amount of research. I don’t know what happened, but I don’t really care about it anymore. Still, I’ll probably pick up a magazine or something in the airport to read on the flight up so I’m not completely clueless about what players might have good fantasy value this year.
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