Election Day Eve: A Degen Political Bettor Tallies His Positions
All four of the loyal readers of my blog probably know that I’ve got a lot of money on the Presidential election. It turns out the contracts on McCain to win the Presidency were highly correlated to the stock market. Unfortunately, I built most of my position on McCain prior to the stock market crash.
In August, I was really looking forward to election day. Now that we’re on its eve, I’m just curled up in a ball in the corner hoping the damage isn’t too bad. One can’t help but wonder how this election would have been different if…
- the stock market hadn’t crashed.
- McCain had gotten Kay Bailey-Hutchinson rather than Sarah Palin to be his running mate.
- Obama came under higher scrutiny from the media for his relationship with Jeremiah Wright (amongst other things).
- McCain had spent more time emphasizing his loyalty to America while spending five and a half years in a Vietnamese prison camp.
- as a response to claims he’s the “same as Bush”, McCain directed people to his outspoken opposition to the Bush administration’s use of torture in the war on terror, a downright admirable defiance to a hot-button emotional issue that would have gotten voters in his corner. (I only learned of this courageous stand of McCain’s last night when I rented Taxi to the Dark Side).
- …etc
However, to the delight of Obama and the people filling my contracts on InTrade and Matchbook, none of those things happened. As a result, those of us with money on McCain desperately need Pennsylvania to turn red in order for our investment to turn black. It’s hard to muster much more than a flicker of hope for that to happen at this late hour, but hey, McCain has came back from worse.
Here are my final positions on McCain for the election. As you can see, tomorrow is going to be a huge sweat!
General Election Winner
Risk $21,866 to win $39,411
Individual State Bets
California: $1,451 to win $12,898
Colorado: $406 to win $444
Connecticut: $216 to win $2,503
Florida: $805 to win $984
Indiana: $7,704 to win $4,815
Iowa: $3,285 to win $8,959
Michigan: $1,373 to win $2,566
Minnesota: $1,122 to win $3,118
Missouri: $4,558 to win $2,942
Montana: $2,258 to win $612
Nevada: $1,514 to win $2,133
New Mexico: $1,894 to win $3,405
North Carolina: $11,556 to win $10,923
Oregon: $177 to win $1,033
Pennsylvania: $1,421 to win $3,569
Texas: $100 to win $5
Virginia: $6,489 to win $6,970
Wisconsin: $2,061 to win $5,693
The only way I can possibly turn a profit on this is if McCain wins the election. And the only plausible scenario in which he does that is: drops Bush states Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada to Obama, but pulls a shocker by flipping Pennsylvania red and manages to squeak out wins in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.
Hey… it could happen! 
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LOL, 4 readers! hahaha you WISH!